Welcome to our very first newsletter!
This week’s draw is from North America.
Before we dive in, a reminder of what the index itself has delivered over time. Our pick has done considerably better.
Period FTSE All-World | Annualized Return | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
Last 10 Years Last 20 Years Last 25 Years | ~12.8% ~9.1% ~8.4% | ~3.3x ~5.7x ~7.2x |
Every week, we pull one company at random from the FTSE All-World with ~4,200 companies representing 90% of global stock market wealth. We share the index's long-term returns as a reminder of why we're here: the long game. New to the newsletter? Start here.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)
Not a tech company. Not a sexy AI play. But fasten your seatbelts.
Annualized returns of 26% over 10 years, 22% over 20 years, and 19% over 25 years. To feel the power of compounding: $10,000 invested 25 years ago would be worth approximately $774,000 today. In a trucking company.
We're very happy to have ODFL in our world equity portfolio — and we had no idea it was in there. Did you? Let's dive in.
A few key facts:
$40B market cap
$5.5B revenue in 2025
20,000+ employees
10,000+ tractors and 45,000+ trailers
12% market share — 2nd largest LTL carrier in the US
Speaking of which: we had no idea what LTL meant either. So let's start there.
What is LTL (Less-Than-Truckload)?
To understand ODFL, you need to understand the middle child of shipping.
Parcel: UPS or FedEx delivering a single box to your door.
FTL (Full Truckload): A company like Walmart fills an entire 53-foot trailer with one product type and ships it directly from factory to warehouse.
LTL (Less-Than-Truckload): For shipments too big for a van but too small to fill a whole truck.
LTL carriers solve a logistics puzzle using a hub-and-spoke model: pick up small loads from different businesses, bring them to a central terminal, sort them, then consolidate them onto a single long-haul truck. Businesses share the cost of the truck, paying only for the slice of the trailer they actually use.
FedEx Freight leads the US LTL market with an estimated $9B in annual revenue. ODFL is right behind them.
Why ODFL crushed the market
Old Dominion isn't just a trucking company. It's a logistics technology company disguised as a trucking fleet.
ODFL capex in millions
Real estate as a moat. LTL is hard to enter and you need a massive network of service centers. While others leased, ODFL spent 25 years buying real estate. Over the last decade alone, they invested $2.4B in their own service center network. That’s what accountants call capex and you can see the yearly numbers in the chart above.
The Amazon Effect. As e-commerce exploded, demand surged for mid-sized, rapid shipments. Too big for UPS, too small for a full truckload. ODFL was the most efficient player in exactly that niche.
Operational excellence. Named the #1 National LTL Carrier for 16 consecutive years, with on-time delivery above 99%. That kind of consistency builds deep customer loyalty.
The chart below shows where their cash flows: capex (investing in the business), share repurchases (buying back their own stock to reduce the number of shares in circulation) and dividends (cash paid directly to shareholders).
ODFL cash flow in millions
The market has noticed. Valuation isn't cheap at a P/E above 40. At those levels, we're a little skeptical about the volume of share buybacks since 2022. But who are we to argue with the management of one of the best-run companies in the index.
What's clear: ODFL generates serious cash — nearly $1B in free cash flow in 2025 — and its owned real estate and service center network leave it well positioned for years to come.
Who are ODFL's customers?
ODFL's customer base is broadly diversified across thousands of US businesses, with no meaningful dependence on any single customer. Over 95% of revenue comes from domestic services.
Demand is strongest in three areas:
Manufacturing and Industrial: The core. Automotive, industrial machinery, chemicals, fabricated products, paper, aluminum. LTL demand here tracks closely with overall industrial production.
Retail and E-commerce: A fast-growing segment. Both brick-and-mortar retailers and online sellers rely on LTL for the frequent, smaller shipments that define modern supply chains.
Food and Beverage: ODFL has been repeatedly recognized by Food Shippers of America for its service to this sector's time-critical logistics needs.
The number we couldn't believe
25-Year Total Return | |
|---|---|
Old Dominion (ODFL) | 46,800% |
Amazon | 41,000% |
Old Dominion sits in the top 1% of the entire index over the last quarter century. Even ahead of Amazon. Luckily, we own both. And that’s the beauty of owning a diversified world equity portfolio.
If you want to learn more about ODFL check out their Investor Relations.
We'd love your feedback on this first edition. Next week, we head to Europe.